SunSirs: Analysis of the Impact of April U.S. Economic Data on Energy Prices

Regarding U.S. economic data, retail sales in April met expectations; however, this performance was primarily bolstered by rising gasoline prices—a trend driven by the conflict involving Iran. Gasoline was the primary factor propelling U.S. import prices to their largest monthly increase since October 2022.

While U.S. retail sales in April aligned with forecasts, the core support came from the surge in gasoline prices, which was itself fueled by geopolitical tensions involving Iran. Concurrently, gasoline served as the leading driver behind the significant rise in U.S. import prices—the sharpest increase recorded since October 2022. As the upstream feedstock for gasoline, rising demand and prices for gasoline are expected to transmit supportive momentum to both spot and futures markets for crude oil. When combined with the additional support provided by the geopolitical risk premium, these factors collectively constitute a generally bullish signal for crude oil prices.

The geopolitical conflict involving Iran has directly driven up gasoline prices. This effect, coupled with robust performance in end-user demand for gasoline, has propelled U.S. import prices to their largest surge in years. Given the current abundance of supportive momentum, the outlook for gasoline prices remains strongly bullish.