SunSirs: China's Natural Rubber Imports Rise Month-on-Month and Year-on-Year in June
I. Key Data on Total Natural Rubber Imports and Exports for the First Half of the Year
From January to June 2026, the cumulative import volume of domestic natural rubber (including Technically Specified Rubber [TSR], Ribbed Smoked Sheets [RSS], Standard Rubber, natural latex, and mixed/composite rubber) reached 3.1311 million tons. This represented a marginal year-on-year increase of 0.2% compared to the same period in 2025, indicating a generally flat trend. When synthetic rubber is included in the statistics, total rubber imports for the first half of the year stood at 3.935 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 3.4%; the contraction in synthetic rubber imports offset the slight increase in natural rubber, resulting in an overall import scale for rubber raw materials that was stable yet slightly weak.
June marked a critical turning point in trade for the first half of the year. Natural rubber imports for the month totaled 483,200 tons—up 14.29% month-on-month and 4.27% year-on-year. This volume exceeded the average for the same period over the past five years, reversing the trend of fluctuating and sluggish monthly imports seen in the preceding five months; the surge in monthly volume was a key development in trade for the first half of the year. On the export side, natural rubber volumes remained consistently very low; domestic exports consisted only of small quantities of scrap and modified rubber, totaling less than 50,000 tons for the half-year. This had virtually no substantive impact on overall supply and demand, as the industry relies entirely on overseas imports to meet domestic demand for tires and industrial rubber products.
II. Divergence in Imports and Exports by Rubber Type: Most Types Grew in June, While Latex and Mixed Rubber Weakened Year-on-Year
Monthly data categorized by customs classifications reveals a distinct structural divergence. In June, while imports of natural latex and mixed rubber declined year-on-year, imports of mainstream industrial raw materials—such as TSR, RSS, and standard rubber—all increased both month-on-month and year-on-year. This divergence was driven by a combination of output from overseas producing regions and the structure of domestic downstream consumption. Ribbed Smoked Sheets (RSS), Standard Vietnamese/Thai Rubber (SVR/STR), and latex are core raw materials for tire manufacturing. In June, Southeast Asia entered a stable tapping period, and new overseas rubber supplies continued to arrive. Coupled with a temporary dip in rubber prices during the month, domestic tire factories engaged in concentrated restocking, driving a significant month-on-month increase in imports across these three categories. Although natural rubber exports from major traditional producers like Thailand and Vietnam contracted overall in the first half of the year, overseas traders released previously stockpiled shipments to China in June, boosting the monthly import volume.
Imports of natural latex remained under pressure throughout the first half of the year, declining year-on-year in June. Latex is primarily used for products such as gloves and dipped bedding items; however, weak overseas demand for light industrial goods in the first half of the year kept downstream processing plants operating at low capacity and dampened the willingness to purchase raw materials. Additionally, rainfall disruptions in overseas latex-producing regions and rising raw material costs further constrained the supply available for export. Imports of mixed rubber also continued to decline year-on-year. As a low-cost substitute for natural rubber, mixed rubber saw its price spread against natural rubber narrow throughout the first half of the year, reducing its cost-effectiveness; consequently, downstream tire companies shifted back to purchasing pure natural rubber, leading to a contraction in demand for mixed rubber imports.
III. Restructuring of Trade Patterns by Overseas Source Country: Declines in Traditional Regions and Increases in Emerging Regions
The composition of natural rubber import sources shifted significantly in the first half of the year. Exports to China from traditional Southeast Asian producers generally declined, while import volumes from emerging rubber-producing nations—such as those in Africa, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos—rose sharply.
Thailand, the largest supplier of natural rubber to China, exported 406,000 tons to the country in the first half of the year, a year-on-year drop of 27%. Exports of Standard Rubber and latex saw the most pronounced declines, whereas exports of mixed rubber to China rose by 12% year-on-year, as overseas traders prioritized this channel to maintain supply. Vietnam’s natural rubber exports to China fell by 34% year-on-year, and Indonesia’s exports shrank by 25%; imports from Malaysia and other Southeast Asian regions also declined, with drops ranging from 9% to 18%. In contrast, natural rubber imports from African producing nations to China rose by 24% year-on-year, while imports from emerging production zones in the Indochina Peninsula—such as Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos—surged by 30%. Supplies from these emerging regions are gradually filling the supply gap left by traditional Southeast Asian regions, where output was constrained by El Niño-related rainfall and reduced tapping activity; this reinforces the trend of diversifying domestic import channels and reduces reliance on supply from any single country.
IV. Four Underlying Drivers for the Month-on-Month and Year-on-Year Increase in June Imports
Concentrated release of seasonal supply from overseas production zones
Heavy rainfall in major Southeast Asian production zones throughout May hindered tapping operations and limited new rubber output, causing a contraction in domestic imports that month. In June, rainfall subsided, and the regions entered the peak tapping season; overseas latex output rose significantly month-on-month. Exporters ramped up shipments to China, leading to a marked increase in arrivals and laying the foundation for substantial month-on-month growth. Additionally, stimulated by high raw material prices earlier in the year, overseas rubber farmers intensified tapping efforts in June, leading to a surge in the overall volume of rubber available for export.
Concentrated release of domestic demand for raw material restocking
Spot prices for natural rubber retreated temporarily in June, prompting tire manufacturers—who had previously adopted a "wait-and-see" approach—to make bulk purchases at lower price points. Operating rates for both semi-steel and all-steel tire plants saw a slight month-on-month recovery. Domestic traders simultaneously increased their volume of locked-in overseas supplies, driving up monthly import demand and pushing the year-on-year import growth rate into positive territory.
Increased willingness among overseas suppliers to ship goods
Overseas processing plants faced inverted profit margins throughout the first half of the year. Following the concentrated market entry of new rubber in June, overseas traders accelerated inventory clearance and prioritized shipping forward-contract cargoes to China. A large volume of previously delayed shipments arrived in June, directly boosting the monthly import statistics.
Changes in price ratios of alternative raw materials
The cost-effectiveness of "mixed rubber" (a blend of natural and synthetic rubber) weakened throughout the first half of the year. Downstream tire enterprises reduced mixed rubber purchases in favor of standard natural rubber. Consequently, import demand for mainstream industrial rubber grades rose, serving as a key driver for the overall increase in natural rubber imports in June. V. First-Half Import/Export Data Reflects the Full Picture of Domestic and International Supply and Demand
Supply and Demand Dynamics in Overseas Markets
Global natural rubber production maintained slight year-on-year growth for the full year; however, output contracted periodically during the first half due to El Niño-related weather disruptions in key Southeast Asian producing regions. Thailand’s total natural rubber exports fell by 13% year-on-year in the first half, and the overall tight supply drove up the baseline price level. As a low-cost substitute, mixed rubber saw continued capacity expansion and export growth, serving as a buffer for overseas manufacturers to offset the production decline in pure natural rubber. Emerging rubber plantations in Africa are gradually maturing, releasing long-term incremental supply and steadily capturing market share from traditional Southeast Asian exports. Global demand for tire exports remained stable, while the reliance of overseas rubber processing industries on Chinese supply sources underwent corresponding adjustments.
Domestic Market Supply-Demand and Upstream-Downstream Interplay
Domestic self-sufficiency in natural rubber is extremely low; with limited output from Yunnan and Hainan, the market is almost entirely dependent on imports. Total import volume remained relatively flat in the first half, mirroring the moderate recovery in domestic demand for tires.
The downstream tire industry showed divergent trends. Demand for all-steel tires—driven by heavy-duty truck manufacturing and infrastructure logistics—remained relatively stable, with operating rates holding at moderate levels. Conversely, semi-steel tire production remained weak, suppressed by both sluggish domestic demand for passenger vehicles and EU anti-dumping policies; this led to a continued contraction in procurement demand for latex and low-end mixed rubber, directly resulting in a year-on-year decline in imports for these two categories.
Upstream synthetic rubber acted as a price hedge; spot prices for polybutadiene rubber (BR) and styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) fluctuated throughout the first half, competing with natural rubber on a price-ratio basis. When natural rubber prices were high, downstream manufacturers moderately switched to synthetic raw materials, thereby capping natural rubber procurement. Regarding port inventories, June saw simultaneous increases in both inflows and outflows; the rise in imports did not lead to a significant inventory buildup, as downstream consumption kept pace, resulting in only minor inventory fluctuations.
VI. Outlook on Future Trade and Import Trends
Based on seasonal patterns in overseas producing regions, tapping operations continued in Southeast Asia throughout July, keeping the supply of new rubber high. Coupled with expectations of early procurement for the domestic tire industry's autumn/winter stocking season, natural rubber imports in July likely saw continued growth both year-on-year and month-on-month; however, the scope for volume increases was constrained by downstream terminal orders, making a massive surge in volume unlikely. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, uncertainties regarding El Niño-related climate disruptions persist; should rainfall in Southeast Asia increase again, overseas supply would contract, leading to a subsequent decline in import volumes. The trend toward diversified import sources will continue, with the share of imports from emerging production regions in Africa and the Indochina Peninsula steadily rising—thereby offsetting export shortfalls from traditional producers like Thailand and Indonesia. The structural pattern across different rubber varieties is unlikely to shift in the short term: imports of standard natural rubber for tire manufacturing remain resilient, while demand for latex and mixed rubber will likely stay sluggish until downstream demand from the light industry and tire sectors sees a substantive recovery. Overall, total annual natural rubber imports are expected to show modest growth, maintaining a market backdrop of loose supply-demand conditions.