SunSirs: China Domestic Natural Rubber Market Trends Up Slightly in April
Since the beginning of April 2026, the natural rubber market has trended slightly upward. As of April 27, spot prices in my country's natural rubber market stood at approximately 17,150 RMB per ton—a 3.52% increase from the 16,566 RMB per ton recorded at the start of the month.
Due to weather disruptions, rubber tapping activities both domestically and internationally have proceeded slowly, resulting in an overall tight supply situation. In China's major production hubs—Yunnan and Hainan—persistent high temperatures and low rainfall have prevailed; consequently, tapping has been temporarily suspended in certain drought-stricken areas of Yunnan, while the flow of latex has been sluggish in Hainan following the commencement of the tapping season. Southeast Asian nations such as Thailand and Vietnam have also been affected by drought, driving up quoted prices for raw latex. Raw material prices in Thailand's production regions have hit a multi-year high, providing strong cost-side support to the market. Data from the ANRPC indicates that global natural rubber production is projected to contract slightly in 2026; with an anticipated annual supply-demand deficit of approximately 400,000 tons, expectations of a tightening supply have intensified.
Downstream tire manufacturers have experienced only narrow fluctuations in operating rates, with market activity driven primarily by immediate, essential demand. For the week ending April 24, the operating rate for semi-steel tires among domestic manufacturers stood at 77%, while Shandong-based manufacturers reported a 69% operating rate for all-steel tires. Although demand provides some degree of support for natural rubber prices, tire inventories continue to climb; inventory turnover periods have reached nearly 40 days for all-steel tires and exceed 43 days for semi-steel tires. Consequently, manufacturers are limiting their purchases to strictly essential requirements, reflecting a subdued willingness to restock.
Port inventories have seen a slight increase: as of April 26, 2026, the combined inventory of bonded and general trade natural rubber in the Qingdao region totaled 716,300 tons—an increase of 7,500 tons (1.06%) compared to the previous period.
In summary, should low rainfall persist in production regions in the near term—thereby reinforcing expectations of a tightening supply—prices are likely to test the 17,500 RMB per ton level. Conversely, if drought conditions ease and the influx of new rubber accelerates—compounded by a slow pace of inventory depletion—prices may retreat to the vicinity of 16,500 RMB per ton.