SunSirs: China Hainan’s Natural Rubber Output Rises 24.4% Year-on-Year in Q1

In the first quarter of 2026, the tapped area for natural rubber in Hainan reached 390,800 mu, marking a year-on-year increase of 26.6%. Output totaled 2,900 tons, up 24.4% from the previous year.

The 26.6% year-on-year expansion in tapped area—coupled with a 24.4% rise in output—during the first quarter of 2026 indicates a significant expansion on the supply side. This is expected to exert downward pressure on spot prices, as the increased supply may alleviate market tightness and drive down spot quotations. When viewed alongside futures market data—specifically regarding the benchmark 2609 contract—it appears that while the contract has recently trended upward (e.g., closing at 17,635 RMB/ton on April 29, a gain of 160 RMB), expectations of continued supply growth are likely to cap the upside potential for futures prices in the future, thereby heightening the risk of a market downturn.