SunSirs: China Natural Rubber Prices Up 30% Year-on-Year; Short-Term Fluctuation with Medium-to-Long-Term Upward Momentum

Since the beginning of 2026, the overall price level of the natural rubber market has steadily shifted upward, characterized by a tug-of-war between "weak current realities" and "strong future expectations." As of June 12, the SunSirs natural rubber price stood at 17,566 RMB/ton, marking a year-to-date increase of 14.50% and a year-on-year rise of 30.53%. With the supply-demand structure continuing to improve and favorable weather patterns providing a boost, rubber prices retain upward momentum, though the short-term trend will likely be characterized by high-level fluctuations as the market builds strength.

Recently, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially confirmed the presence of the El Niño phenomenon. NOAA’s announcement indicates a 63% probability that the phenomenon will intensify sharply between late autumn and early winter of this year. The risk of severe drought is significant; the market anticipates that this will hinder tapping efficiency in Southeast Asian production regions, providing strong fundamental and speculative support for rubber prices in the second half of the year. Currently, raw material prices in Thailand remain high, and supply is tight. As of June 12, smoked sheet rubber in Thai production areas was quoted at 95.00 THB/kg (up 38.69% year-on-year); field latex at 88.50 THB/kg (up 55.95%); and cup lump at 74.80 THB/kg (up 34.77%).

Demand remains resilient, bolstered by substitution effects. Domestic tire manufacturers have maintained stable operating rates. Meanwhile, high synthetic rubber prices have narrowed the price gap between synthetic and natural rubber, prompting downstream enterprises to increase the proportion of natural rubber used in production, thereby further boosting consumption demand. As of June 10, the operating rate for semi-steel tires at domestic tire companies stood at approximately 70%, while the rate for all-steel tires in the Shandong region was around 68%.

Inventory levels have seen a slight increase, exerting some short-term downward pressure on the natural rubber market. As of June 7, 2026, the combined inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao area—covering both bonded and general trade stocks—stood at 696,800 tons, an increase of 0.88% month-on-month. From a fundamental perspective, Southeast Asian producing regions enter their traditional peak production season between June and July; the concentrated arrival of new rubber supplies, combined with the tire industry's seasonal lull, has slowed the pace of price increases, making wide-range fluctuation the most likely scenario in the short term. In the medium to long term, as the impact of El Niño materializes between August and December and production cuts take effect, rubber prices are expected to break through previous highs. The long-term pattern of a tight supply-demand balance persists, creating an environment where prices are prone to rising rather than falling, with the price center continuing to shift upward.