SunSirs: China NBR Market Prices Rise Then Fall, Trending Downward Overall
Since the beginning of April, the market for nitrile rubber has experienced an initial rise followed by a decline, resulting in an overall retreat. According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of April 22, the price stood at 22,250 RMB/ton—a decrease of 1.87% compared to the 22,675 RMB/ton recorded at the start of the month, and a decline of 5.42% from the peak reached during this period.
On the cost side, raw material prices have retreated from high levels, thereby weakening the cost-side support for NBR. As of April 22, the price of butadiene was 13,766 RMB/ton, down 24.91% from the 18,333 RMB/ton recorded at the beginning of the month. Similarly, as of April 22, the price of acrylonitrile was 10,533 RMB/ton, a decline of 9.46% from the 11,633 RMB/ton seen at the start of the month.
On the supply side, the overall market remains relatively tight yet stable, providing neutral-to-bullish support for market prices. In April, several domestic production facilities entered scheduled maintenance cycles; plants operated by companies such as Nanjing Jinpu Yingsa and Arlong TSRC were shut down for repairs, impacting local supply. However, major industry players—such as Lanzhou Petrochemical and Zhenjiang Nandi—maintained high operating rates. Furthermore, with no new production capacity expected to come online until 2026, market supply remains adequate but not loose; consequently, no significant supply-side pressure has emerged.
On the demand side, the market appears slightly sluggish. Recovery remains slow in key downstream sectors for NBR, specifically the automotive industry and the production of rubber hoses and seals; the growth in demand within the high-end new energy vehicle sector has not been sufficient to fully offset the weakness observed in traditional sectors. Concurrently, high raw material prices have prompted downstream enterprises to adopt cautious procurement strategies—often opting for "buy-as-needed" and low-inventory operating models—resulting in weak transaction volumes at higher price points. Compounding this situation, the impact of anti-dumping policies in India has placed export orders under pressure, further dampening the release of market demand.
In the short term—specifically from late April through early May—the NBR market is expected to continue exhibiting a trend of weak, volatile fluctuations.