SunSirs: Narrow Range Consolidation of China Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Market
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been fluctuating and consolidating recently (3.1-3.17). As of March 17, the spot rubber market price in China's natural rubber market was around 16,808 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.64% from 16,916 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. As of March 17th, the mainstream price for 24 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 16,700-16,900 RMB/ton.
Recently (3.1-3.17), the price of natural rubber raw materials has risen. As of March 17th, the price of Thai glue was 73.00 baht/kg, an increase of 6.88% from 68.30 baht/kg at the beginning of the month. Yunnan and Hainan provinces in China are in a period of shutdown, with seasonal supply cuts for new glue. Thai glue prices remain high, providing strong cost support. But with Yunnan's imminent opening in mid March, coupled with the continuous influx of low-priced imported goods from Laos with zero tariffs, market supply growth expectations are heating up, suppressing the upward space for prices.
Recently (3.1-3.17), natural rubber inventory has slightly decreased, with a slightly bearish impact on natural rubber. As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 677,600 tons, a decrease of 0.34% from the beginning of the month, which was 679,900 tons.
Supply and demand side: As of the week of March 13th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 77.71%; The operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises is 70.22%. The domestic tire production has increased, and the demand for natural rubber has some support.
Natural rubber will still be in a supply-demand game and a high-level oscillation pattern. During the shutdown period, the strength of raw materials and the demand for tires supported the bottom of prices, but the expectation of cutting, high inventory, and export pressure limited the upward space. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the progress of Yunnan's cutting, the clearance of inventory in Qingdao, and the impact of the Middle East situation on exports.