SunSirs: Analysis of Declining Thai Natural Rubber Raw Material Prices (May 18)

On May 18, the market for natural rubber raw materials in Thailand's production regions experienced a decline: Smoked Sheets were quoted at 87.50 THB/kg, down 1.30 THB/kg; Latex was quoted at 84.00 THB/kg, down 1.50 THB/kg; and Cup Lump was quoted at 71.31 THB/kg, down 0.51 THB/kg.

Spot Market: As Thailand is the world's core production hub for natural rubber, the broad-based decline in local raw material prices directly lowers the import costs for domestic natural rubber, thereby exerting bearish pressure on domestic spot prices.

Futures Market: On May 15, the benchmark NR2609 contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) closed at 17,585 RMB/ton—a decrease of 465 RMB/ton from the settlement price. With open interest standing at 191,000 lots, the market witnessed a significant reduction in positions. When combined with the current bearish factors stemming from the raw material sector, there is a high probability that futures prices will trend lower in the short term.