Wall Street futures, dollar ease in wake of credit blow

Wall Street share futures slipped with the dollar on Monday and Treasury yields rose as concerns about erratic US economic policies were underlined by Moody's downgrade of the country's credit rating.

Unease over the United States' US$36 trillion of debt has also mounted as Republicans seek to approve a sweeping package of tax cuts, which some estimate could add US$3 trillion to US$5 trillion in new debt over the next decade.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent used television interviews on Sunday to dismiss the downgrade, while warning trade partners they would be hit with maximum tariffs if they did not offer deals in "good faith".

Bessent is off to a G7 meeting this week for more talks, while US Vice President JD Vance and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met on Sunday to discuss trade.

"It remains to be seen whether the 10 per cent reciprocal rate – excluding Canada and Mexico – will broadly remain, or will go up or down for some countries," said JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli, who estimates the current effective tariff of around 13 per cent was equal to a tax rise worth 1.2 per cent of GDP.

"Beyond disruptions from higher tariffs themselves, policy uncertainty should additionally weigh on growth."

The tariff war has weighed heavily on consumer sentiment and analysts will be scouring earnings from Home Depot and Target this week for an update on spending trends.

The impact of the trade standoff with China could be a little clearer when Beijing releases April data on retail sales and industrial output later on Monday. Analysts are looking for a slowdown in both, though forecasts vary widely.

In markets, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.2 per cent, with Japan's Nikkei down 0.6 per cent.

DOLLAR DOUBTS

S&P 500 futures eased 0.7 per cent and Nasdaq futures lost 0.8 per cent in early trade, though that followed major rallies last week in the wake of President Donald Trump's decision to lower levies on China.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose another 4 basis points to 4.48 per cent, extending Friday's reversal on the Moody's news.

Markets are still pricing in only 53 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, compared to more than 100 basis points a month ago. Futures imply just a 33 per cent chance of a move by July, rising to 72 per cent by September.

Higher yields offered little comfort to the dollar, which was drifting lower amid investor unease with the volatility of US trade policy. The euro edged up 0.2 per cent to US$1.1188, while the dollar slipped 0.3 per cent to 145.19 yen.

In an interview published over the weekend, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the dollar's recent decline reflected a loss of confidence in US policies and this could benefit the euro currency.

In commodity markets, gold was on the rise again after shedding almost four per cent last week. The metal was trading 1.2 per cent firmer at US$3,241 an ounce.

Oil prices were steadier for the moment having been weighed by the risk of increased output from OPEC and Iran.

Brent inched up 6 cents to US$65.47 a barrel, while US crude added 15 cents to US$62.64 per barrel.

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