ANRPC releases Monthly NR Statistical Report, February 2026

Foreword by Secretary-General

It is my honour to present the ANRPC Monthly Natural Rubber Market Report for February 2026. This edition captures a period of notable market dynamism, shaped by a confluence of geopolitical developments, macroeconomic shifts, and evolving supply-demand fundamentals across the global natural rubber (NR) sector.

On the supply side, global NR production is projected to reach 15.324 million tons in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.2% from 14.996 million tons recorded in 2025. In February alone, output is forecast at 994,000 tons, up 3.4% year-on-year, supported by improved weather conditions across several key producing countries and higher prevailing rubber prices. Nevertheless, production trajectories remain uneven among member countries. Thailand is expected to maintain its position as the world’s leading producer, while Indonesia and Vietnam face near-term output constraints attributable to a range of structural and agronomic factors. Malaysia continues its efforts to rehabilitate abandoned rubber plantations, with the Rubber Production Incentive (IPG)

activated in Sarawak and Sabah, and the Malaysian Rubber Board (LGM) targeting rehabilitation of some 4,137 hectares of idle rubber land in 2026 as part of a longer-term supply restoration strategy.

In the physical and futures markets, prices strengthened appreciably across all major rubber grades during February 2026. SMR-20 in Kuala Lumpur averaged USD 2.01 per kg, up 5.13% month-on-month, while STR-20 in Bangkok averaged USD 2.11 per kg, up 5.12%. Sheet rubber grades similarly firmed, with RSS-3 rising 7.84% to an average of USD 2.35 per kg and RSS-4 in Kottayam recording a notable 10.38% increase to USD 2.34 per kg. Centrifuged latex in Kuala Lumpur also trended upward, closing the month at USD 1.61 per kg. On the futures front, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) May 2026 contract averaged approximately 16,508 CNY/ton, while the SGX contract averaged USD 1.92 per kg — both reflecting a firming market underpinned by strong sectoral demand and tightening supply expectations ahead of the seasonal low-yield period from February to May.

The broader market backdrop is also shaped by crude oil price volatility. Brent crude averaged USD 70.89 per barrel in February, rising 6.43% from January, and subsequently surged to approximately USD 104 per barrel in early March following the onset of military action in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical transit corridor for nearly 20% of global oil supply. This development has introduced a significant risk premium into energy markets, with consequential implications for synthetic rubber competitiveness and, by extension, natural rubber demand dynamics. Currency movements in key producing countries — notably the Malaysian Ringgit, which appreciated modestly to approximately 3.89 MYR per USD by end-February, and the Thai Baht, which strengthened to around 31.08 THB per USD — are additional variables influencing trade competitiveness and export revenues for member countries. Looking ahead, the short-term outlook for the NR market is shaped by a balance of upside potential and downside risks. The anticipated rise in automotive production — particularly new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China, India, and Southeast Asia — is expected to sustain NR demand and support prices. Conversely, ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China, geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East, and unpredictable weather conditions entering the low-yield season represent key risks that could disrupt supply chains and trade flows. Currency movements driven by U.S. monetary policy uncertainty will continue to influence pricing dynamics and export competitiveness across member countries.

I trust that the analysis and data presented in this report will serve as a valuable reference for member governments, industry stakeholders, and market participants in their strategic planning and decision-making. I encourage all readers to engage with the full contents of this report and to share their insights with the ANRPC Secretariat. Current subscribers who have not yet renewed, as well as those seeking subscription, are invited to contact us at secretariat@anrpc.org.

Yours sincerely,

Dr. Suttipong Angthong

Secretary-General